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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-28-C.Milton at TEN 9. 28-C.Milton to TEN 9 for no gain (25-A.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP