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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to IND 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model