4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model