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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model