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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 19, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to HOU 30 for 11 yards (17-D.Chark).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP