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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

5-11 HC Doug Marrone
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

11-5 HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 ET NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

JAX
33.2%
HOU
66.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.126 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.007 EPA/dropback (JAX starting Blake Bortles in place of Cody Kessler)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19 12–26
–
HOU 26 19–33
Projected margin: HOU by 7 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

A.J. Bouye CB Out Toe
Josh Lambo K Out right Groin
Josh Wells T Out Concussion
Leonard Fournette RB Doubtful Ankle
D.J. Hayden CB Questionable Groin
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Knee

HOU

Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Dunn DT Questionable Ankle
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 3
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 FG JAX (10:11) 2-K.Forbath 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 05:23 FG HOU (5:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. JAX 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – HOU 9
  • Q2 03:05 TD HOU (3:05) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – HOU 16
  • Q4 10:55 FG HOU (10:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. JAX 3 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:01) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 38 for 17 yards (20-J.Reid).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-D.Chark. Jacksonville challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-53-B.Brown at HOU 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (10:11) 2-K.Forbath 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (5:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to HOU 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 20 for 9 yards (22-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:42) 8-T.Daniel punts 36 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 49. 41-Z.Cunningham ran ob at HOU 49 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 19, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to HOU 30 for 11 yards (17-D.Chark).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:30) 8-T.Daniel punts 60 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 36, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to HOU 37 for 1 yard (22-C.Davis; 55-L.McCray).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to HOU 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to HOU 32 for 5 yards (52-D.Payne; 55-L.McCray).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:56) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 43 for 14 yards (23-J.Bademosi; 50-T.Adams). PENALTY on JAX-52-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 59%

    (8:54) 8-T.Daniel punts 32 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-23-J.Bademosi.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to HOU 24, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (2:12) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to HOU 35, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (10:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (9:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to HOU 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to JAX 45 for 30 yards (43-Q.Meeks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%

    (8:18) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas ran ob at JAX 14 for 6 yards.

    See the full breakdown →