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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 38 for 17 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model