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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 63

Houston Texans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 8-T.Daniel punts 60 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP