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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 36, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to HOU 37 for 1 yard (22-C.Davis; 55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model