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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to HOU 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to HOU 32 for 5 yards (52-D.Payne; 55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model