Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 17

(13:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model