Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 17

(5:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to HOU 24, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.29 EP
48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model