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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 52

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model