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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to HOU 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter to JAX 45 for 30 yards (43-Q.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model