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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 42

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP