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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 20

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas ran ob at JAX 14 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.46 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP