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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to HOU 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 20 for 9 yards (22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model