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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-N.Foles up the middle to WAS 13 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen). 9 - QB Sneak

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model