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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PHI
50.9%
WAS
49.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Josh Johnson (WAS): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PHI

D.J. Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Carson Wentz QB Out Back
Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral
Mike Wallace WR Out Ankle
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Foot
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Calf
Jason Kelce C Questionable Knee
Jason Peters T Questionable Quadricep

WAS

Ty Nsekhe T Out Knee
Maurice Harris WR Out Concussion
Vernon Davis TE Doubtful Concussion
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Illness
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Anderson LB Questionable Hamstring
Tony Bergstrom G Questionable Knee
Zac Kerin G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 24
–
WAS 0

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:26 FG PHI (:26) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:36 TD PHI (:36) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – WAS 0
  • Q3 01:28 TD PHI (1:28) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 13-N.Agholor. Philadelphia challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – WAS 0
  • Q4 07:41 TD PHI (7:41) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld pass short left to 13-N.Agholor for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – WAS 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:30) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to PHI 16, Center-55-A.East, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:50) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to WAS 37, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 46 for 9 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:50) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to PHI 19, Center-55-A.East. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 21 for 2 yards (39-A.Alexander).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (:26) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:26) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to PHI 13, Center-55-A.East, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 9-N.Foles up the middle to WAS 13 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen). 9 - QB Sneak

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 41%

    (10:31) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:00) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 32, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-56-Z.Vigil.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:11) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way pass short left to 16-J.Chesson to WAS 40 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:41) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to PHI 25, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-55-A.East.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:02) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to WAS 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 46 for 11 yards (50-L.Reynolds).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 46%

    (10:46) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at WAS 46 for -11 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], recovered by WAS-62-K.Fuller at WAS 46. 62-K.Fuller to WAS 46 for no gain (77-M.Bennett).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:43) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short right to 84-D.Kidsy pushed ob at PHI 47 for 8 yards (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson sacked at PHI 40 for -8 yards (91-F.Cox).