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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model