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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 84

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 32, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-56-Z.Vigil.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP