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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way pass short left to 16-J.Chesson to WAS 40 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model