Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 60

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(14:41) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to PHI 25, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-55-A.East.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model