Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(9:30) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to PHI 16, Center-55-A.East, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model