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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to WAS 37, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 46 for 9 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model