Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 81

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(9:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 60 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 35 for 14 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.55 EP
55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model