Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- HOU offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- HOU defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to IND: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.098 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.229 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
IND
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:37 TD IND (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 0
- Q1 04:08 TD IND (4:08) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 0
- Q2 06:29 TD IND (6:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 15-D.Inman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – HOU 0
- Q4 11:03 TD HOU (11:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 16-K.Coutee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 21 – HOU 6
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 72%
(9:35) 8-T.Daniel punts 40 yards to IND 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 44%
(:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 84-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at IND 40. 23-K.Moore II to 50 for 10 yards (84-R.Griffin).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 60 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 35 for 14 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%
(1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins [93-J.Sheard].
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Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 54%
(13:53) 8-T.Daniel punts 46 yards to IND 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-5-J.Webb.
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Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(10:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. PENALTY on HOU-39-D.Burton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 34.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 62%
(9:15) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 6 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
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Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(8:15) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.
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Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 49%
(2:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 40 for 7 yards (50-A.Walker).
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Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%
(8:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-20-J.Wilkins.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(6:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to IND 36 for 21 yards (30-G.Odum).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 24 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%
(4:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 17-V.Smith [23-K.Moore II].