4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP