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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 40 for 7 yards (50-A.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model