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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-20-J.Wilkins.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP