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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 8-T.Daniel punts 40 yards to IND 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP