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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 18

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.13 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model