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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2019-01-06 · 16:40 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

PHI
34.8%
CHI
65.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) +0.158 vs Nick Foles (PHI) +0.129 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 19
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

PHI

D.J. Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Carson Wentz QB Out Back
Mike Wallace WR Out Ankle
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Foot
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Chest
Avonte Maddox CB Questionable Oblique
Jason Peters T Questionable Quadricep

CHI

Aaron Lynch LB Doubtful Elbow
DeAndre Houston-Carson S Questionable Ribs
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Ankle
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 16
–
CHI 15

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:37 FG PHI (9:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 09:42 FG CHI (9:42) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PHI 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 1-C.Parkey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PHI 3 – CHI 6
  • Q3 05:26 TD PHI (5:26) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – CHI 6
  • Q4 14:17 FG CHI (14:17) 1-C.Parkey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PHI 10 – CHI 9
  • Q4 09:09 TD CHI (9:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-29-A.Maddox, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. PHI 10 – CHI 15
  • Q4 01:01 TD PHI (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-L.Floyd]. PHI 16 – CHI 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (9:37) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 23%

    (5:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to PHI 1, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:37) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to PHI 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 42%

    (2:41) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to PHI 7, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-33-T.Mizzell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (9:42) 1-C.Parkey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to PHI 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 32 for -1 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:45) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CHI 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (9:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:42) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to CHI 22, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (14:17) 1-C.Parkey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:08) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:10) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CHI 26, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:57) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to PHI 40, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-L.Floyd].

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 82%

    (:10) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Hester), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.