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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 79

Chicago Bears 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to PHI 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 32 for -1 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model