Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 3

(2:45) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CHI 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.88 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model