4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 16

Chicago Bears 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 1-C.Parkey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model