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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP