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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Chicago Bears 15

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CHI 26, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model