Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 76

Chicago Bears 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(4:57) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to PHI 40, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.47 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model