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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Chicago Bears 15

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model