4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 97

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to PHI 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.14 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 97, worth -6.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model