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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to LA 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-48-J.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model