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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Saturday 2019-01-12 · 20:15 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

DAL
37.4%
LA
62.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • LA on 6 more days rest than DAL
  • LA defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.107 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
LA 27
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

DAL

David Irving DE Out Ankle
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Ankle
Blake Jarwin TE Questionable Ankle
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Illness
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Questionable Ankle
Darian Thompson S Questionable Groin

LA

Ethan Westbrooks DT Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 22
–
LA 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 FG LA (9:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. DAL 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 06:10 TD DAL (6:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – LA 3
  • Q2 13:43 FG LA (13:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. DAL 7 – LA 6
  • Q2 07:05 TD LA (7:05) (No Huddle) 35-C.Anderson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – LA 12
  • Q2 03:35 TD LA (3:35) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – LA 19
  • Q3 10:08 FG LA (10:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. DAL 7 – LA 23
  • Q3 05:23 TD DAL (5:23) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – LA 23
  • Q4 07:20 TD LA (7:20) 35-C.Anderson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – LA 29
  • Q4 02:17 TD DAL (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DAL 21 – LA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (9:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 33%

    (6:28) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton, 43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on LA-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:15) 16-J.Goff up the middle to LA 48 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (13:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:31) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to LA 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-48-J.Thomas.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:16) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to LA 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Natson to LA 36 for 12 yards (48-J.Thomas; 91-L.Ladouceur).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 45%

    (:44) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to LA 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 37-S.Shields to LA 26 for 17 yards (85-N.Brown).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 26 for no gain.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (10:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 53%

    (7:12) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right end to LA 36 for 5 yards (56-D.Fowler; 21-A.Talib).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

    (3:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to DAL 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 68%

    (15:00) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 35 for no gain (20-L.Joyner; 43-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:20) 35-C.Anderson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%

    (5:41) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to LA 40 for 2 yards (50-S.Ebukam).