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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to LA 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Natson to LA 36 for 12 yards (48-J.Thomas; 91-L.Ladouceur).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model