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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right end to LA 36 for 5 yards (56-D.Fowler; 21-A.Talib).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model