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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.12 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP