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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Rams 23 – Dallas Cowboys 15
What Actually Happened
(7:20) 35-C.Anderson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.32 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.21 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth -0.29 EP
KICK
+1.22 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT
-0.97 EP
- Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
