4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 15 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to LA 40 for 2 yards (50-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.46 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model