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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model