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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Saturday 2019-01-12 · 16:35 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 4.0 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

IND
39.9%
KC
60.1%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.333 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.241 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • KC on 6 more days rest than IND
  • IND defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

IND

Ryan Grant WR Out Toe
Tyquan Lewis DE Doubtful Knee
Malik Hooker S Questionable Foot
Denico Autry DT Questionable Shoulder

KC

Dorian O'Daniel LB Doubtful Calf
Eric Berry S Questionable Heel
Spencer Ware RB Questionable Hamstring
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 13
–
KC 31

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 TD KC (10:11) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 06:39 TD KC (6:39) 10-T.Hill left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 12:18 FG KC (12:18) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. IND 0 – KC 17
  • Q2 06:04 TD IND (6:04) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-N.Goode, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by IND-14-Z.Pascal at KC -2. TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – KC 17
  • Q2 01:46 TD KC (1:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – KC 23
  • Q4 05:37 TD IND (5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – KC 24
  • Q4 02:32 TD KC (2:32) 31-Dar.Williams up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 46 for 26 yards (52-N.Goode). PENALTY on KC-39-Tr. Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to KC 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill to KC 30 for -1 yards (28-C.Milton).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 28%

    (7:15) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 36 for 11 yards (35-P.Desir).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to KC 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 60%

    (1:15) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 31 for 4 yards (26-C.Geathers, 96-D.Autry).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (12:18) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to KC 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for 3 yards (27-N.Hairston).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 20 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:04) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-N.Goode, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by IND-14-Z.Pascal at KC -2. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 46%

    (9:50) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 38 for 2 yards (53-D.Leonard).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at IND 38 for -5 yards (96-D.Autry). PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:49) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to KC 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for no gain (28-C.Milton). FUMBLES (28-C.Milton), recovered by KC-39-Tr. Smith at KC 21. 39-Tr. Smith to KC 21 for no gain (26-C.Geathers).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to IND 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:15) 2-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 41%

    (12:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 25 yards to IND 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to KC 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 38 for 4 yards.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to IND 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 43%

    (6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 80-C.Rogers to KC 29 for 12 yards (23-K.Fuller).